Credit Markets & Spread Indicators

Credit spreads measure the extra yield investors demand for taking on credit risk versus risk-free Treasuries. They are among the cleanest real-time signals of market stress, recession probability, and broader risk appetite.

When credit conditions tighten, businesses borrow less, defaults rise, and risk assets typically follow. When spreads compress, capital flows freely, supporting equity rallies and economic expansion. The series in this section are core inputs to nearly every institutional risk-regime model.