About This Indicator
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures how U.S. households feel about their personal finances, business conditions, and buying intentions. Monthly readings have run since 1978 (quarterly history back to 1952), normalized to 100 at Q1 1966.
The headline is built from three components published alongside it:
- Index of Consumer Sentiment — the headline measure
- Current Economic Conditions — personal finances and buying conditions today
- Index of Consumer Expectations — outlook for personal finances, business conditions, and the broader economy over 1–5 years
Each month delivers a preliminary mid-month reading followed by a final near month-end. At the source's request, the data shown here is delayed by one month.
Why This Matters
Consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, so shifts in consumer mood lead changes in retail sales, discretionary spending, and recession risk. Sustained declines in the Expectations sub-index have preceded most recessions in the past 50 years; Current Conditions helps distinguish soft sentiment shifts from real cyclical turns.
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, via FRED. Copyright © 2016 Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan. Reprinted with permission.