Federal Reserve Economic Data | Series: T10Y2Y
| 2025-07-30 | 0.44 |
| 2025-07-31 | 0.43 |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.54 |
| 2025-08-04 | 0.53 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.50 |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.53 |
| 2025-08-07 | 0.51 |
| 2025-08-08 | 0.51 |
| 2025-08-11 | 0.51 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.57 |
| 2025-08-13 | 0.57 |
| 2025-08-14 | 0.55 |
| 2025-08-15 | 0.58 |
| 2025-08-18 | 0.57 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.55 |
| 2025-08-20 | 0.55 |
| 2025-08-21 | 0.54 |
| 2025-08-22 | 0.58 |
| 2025-08-25 | 0.55 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.65 |
| 2025-08-27 | 0.65 |
| 2025-08-28 | 0.60 |
| 2025-08-29 | 0.64 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.62 |
| 2025-09-03 | 0.61 |
| 2025-09-04 | 0.58 |
| 2025-09-05 | 0.59 |
| 2025-09-08 | 0.56 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.54 |
| 2025-09-10 | 0.50 |
| 2025-09-11 | 0.49 |
| 2025-09-12 | 0.50 |
| 2025-09-15 | 0.51 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.53 |
| 2025-09-17 | 0.54 |
| 2025-09-18 | 0.54 |
| 2025-09-19 | 0.57 |
| 2025-09-22 | 0.54 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.59 |
| 2025-09-24 | 0.59 |
| 2025-09-25 | 0.54 |
| 2025-09-26 | 0.57 |
| 2025-09-29 | 0.52 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.56 |
| 2025-10-01 | 0.57 |
| 2025-10-02 | 0.55 |
| 2025-10-03 | 0.55 |
| 2025-10-06 | 0.58 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.57 |
| 2025-10-08 | 0.55 |
The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury constant maturity rates, calculated daily. A key recession indicator when inverted.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), calculated from U.S. Treasury data
Units: Percent
Frequency: Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Data Points: 1,247 observations
Date Range: 2020-10-14 to 2025-10-14
Yield curve inversion (negative spread) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950s, making it the most reliable recession predictor. Normal upward-sloping curve reflects higher long-term rates. Inversion suggests investors expect economic slowdown and Fed rate cuts. Zero or negative values warrant close attention for recession timing.
Yield curve inversions (negative values) have preceded every recession, making this the most reliable recession indicator for defensive positioning. Values below 0.5% suggest late-cycle conditions favoring value over growth. Steep curves above 2% indicate economic expansion and benefit banks/financials. Day traders watch for rapid steepening/flattening as policy expectations shift.