Federal Reserve Economic Data | Series: GDPPOT
| 2021-01-01 | 21,277.70 |
| 2021-04-01 | 21,382.90 |
| 2021-07-01 | 21,493.02 |
| 2021-10-01 | 21,606.08 |
| 2022-01-01 | 21,722.02 |
| 2022-04-01 | 21,840.57 |
| 2022-07-01 | 21,961.54 |
| 2022-10-01 | 22,084.93 |
| 2023-01-01 | 22,208.24 |
| 2023-04-01 | 22,333.11 |
| 2023-07-01 | 22,459.74 |
| 2023-10-01 | 22,588.18 |
| 2024-01-01 | 22,718.13 |
| 2024-04-01 | 22,849.87 |
| 2024-07-01 | 22,981.32 |
| 2024-10-01 | 23,113.34 |
| 2025-01-01 | 23,243.22 |
| 2025-04-01 | 23,376.07 |
| 2025-07-01 | 23,510.18 |
| 2025-10-01 | 23,644.63 |
Real potential GDP is the CBO's estimate of economic output with high utilization of capital and labor resources, adjusted for inflation using chained 2017 dollars.
Source: Congressional Budget Office via Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Units: Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars
Frequency: Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Data Points: 20 observations
Date Range: 2020-10-14 to 2025-10-14
Potential GDP represents the economy's maximum sustainable output without generating excessive inflation. When actual GDP exceeds potential, it signals an overheated economy. The gap between actual and potential GDP (output gap) is crucial for Federal Reserve policy and fiscal planning decisions.
Potential GDP growth trends influence long-term investment allocation and currency strength. Slowing potential growth suggests lower future returns and can drive capital toward higher-yielding assets. When actual GDP consistently exceeds potential, it signals inflationary pressure and potential Fed tightening, creating headwinds for growth stocks and bonds. Investors use this for secular trend analysis rather than tactical trading.