Federal Reserve Economic Data | Series: T10Y2YM
| 2021-08-01 | 1.06 |
| 2021-09-01 | 1.13 |
| 2021-10-01 | 1.19 |
| 2021-11-01 | 1.05 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.78 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.78 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.49 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.22 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.21 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.28 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.14 |
| 2022-07-01 | -0.14 |
| 2022-08-01 | -0.35 |
| 2022-09-01 | -0.34 |
| 2022-10-01 | -0.40 |
| 2022-11-01 | -0.61 |
| 2022-12-01 | -0.67 |
| 2023-01-01 | -0.68 |
| 2023-02-01 | -0.78 |
| 2023-03-01 | -0.64 |
| 2023-04-01 | -0.56 |
| 2023-05-01 | -0.56 |
| 2023-06-01 | -0.89 |
| 2023-07-01 | -0.93 |
| 2023-08-01 | -0.73 |
| 2023-09-01 | -0.64 |
| 2023-10-01 | -0.27 |
| 2023-11-01 | -0.38 |
| 2023-12-01 | -0.44 |
| 2024-01-01 | -0.26 |
| 2024-02-01 | -0.33 |
| 2024-03-01 | -0.38 |
| 2024-04-01 | -0.33 |
| 2024-05-01 | -0.38 |
| 2024-06-01 | -0.43 |
| 2024-07-01 | -0.25 |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.10 |
| 2024-09-01 | 0.10 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.13 |
| 2024-11-01 | 0.10 |
| 2024-12-01 | 0.16 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.36 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.24 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.31 |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.50 |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.50 |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.49 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.51 |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.56 |
| 2025-09-01 | 0.55 |
Monthly version of the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, providing a smoother view of yield curve dynamics over time.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), calculated from U.S. Treasury data
Units: Percent
Frequency: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Data Points: 59 observations
Date Range: 2020-10-14 to 2025-10-14
Monthly yield spread smooths daily volatility to reveal underlying trends in yield curve shape. Historical analysis shows inversions lasting several months before recessions begin. More reliable for long-term economic analysis than daily data. Useful for backtesting recession prediction models and monetary policy assessment over business cycles.
Monthly yield curve data smooths volatility for strategic positioning. Sustained inversions lasting 3+ months have historically preceded recessions by 12-18 months, providing time for defensive allocation. Normal curves above 1.5% support cyclical positioning and bank stocks. The monthly view is better for strategic asset allocation than tactical trading decisions.